Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 7:30 pm ET
Fiserv Forum
Game: 0022500880
Matchup
Boston Celtics
Away
VS
Milwaukee Bucks
Home
Projected Total
216.07
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -4.42 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Milwaukee Bucks
Factor: 1.000
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Boston Celtics
Factor: 1.150
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
112.38
Boston Celtics
Home Points
103.70
Milwaukee Bucks
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +1.02
Δ Spread (H-A): -4.42
Δ Win%: -10.05%
- Baseline pace: 94.55 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -4.42, Total Δ +1.02.
- Win prob shift: -10.05 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.00 | Away 1.15.
Milwaukee Bucks
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ousmane Dieng
Starter
|
24.51 | 11.19 | 36.47 | 19.00 |
|
Kevin Porter Jr.
Starter
|
18.48 | 8.44 | 27.50 | 6.00 |
|
AJ Green
Starter
|
17.83 | 8.14 | 26.52 | 11.50 |
|
Ryan Rollins
Rotation
|
17.39 | 7.94 | 25.87 | 6.00 |
|
Kyle Kuzma
Starter
|
16.86 | 7.70 | 25.08 | 16.00 |
|
Bobby Portis
Rotation
|
16.63 | 7.59 | 24.74 | 14.00 |
|
Myles Turner
Rotation
|
15.24 | 6.96 | 22.68 | 5.00 |
|
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Rotation
|
14.79 | 6.75 | 22.00 | 21.00 |
Boston Celtics
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Derrick White
Rotation
|
24.94 | 11.69 | 30.79 | 7.50 |
|
Jaylen Brown
Rotation
|
24.19 | 11.34 | 29.86 | 34.00 |
|
Sam Hauser
Rotation
|
24.10 | 11.30 | 29.76 | 23.50 |
|
Anfernee Simons
Rotation
|
23.47 | 11.00 | 28.98 | 26.50 |
|
Payton Pritchard
Rotation
|
19.45 | 9.12 | 24.02 | 2.00 |
|
Hugo González
Rotation
|
17.60 | 8.25 | 21.74 | 4.50 |
|
Neemias Queta
Rotation
|
17.57 | 8.24 | 21.69 | 11.50 |
|
Luka Garza
Rotation
|
16.34 | 7.66 | 20.18 | 7.50 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
+4.26
From team ratings
Player Adj
+8.68
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
215.05
Player Adj
216.07
Base: 215.05
Home Win Probability
Milwaukee Bucks
Baseline
36.13%
Dec: 2.77
|
Am: +177
Player Adj
26.08 %
Dec: 3.83
|
Am: +283
Confidence
58%