Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 9:00 pm ET
Intuit Dome
Game: 0022500877
Matchup
New Orleans Pelicans
Away
VS
LA Clippers
Home
Projected Total
222.90
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -2.38 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
LA Clippers
Factor: 1.150
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
New Orleans Pelicans
Factor: 1.140
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
110.95
New Orleans Pelicans
Home Points
111.95
LA Clippers
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +1.92
Δ Spread (H-A): -2.38
Δ Win%: -8.08%
- Baseline pace: 97.39 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -2.38, Total Δ +1.92.
- Win prob shift: -8.08 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.15 | Away 1.14.
LA Clippers
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jordan Miller
Rotation
|
26.48 | 13.50 | 39.75 | 15.00 |
|
James Harden
Rotation
|
26.27 | 13.40 | 39.44 | 26.50 |
|
Ivica Zubac
Rotation
|
25.68 | 13.10 | 38.55 | 16.00 |
|
Kobe Sanders
Rotation
|
20.75 | 10.58 | 31.15 | 12.00 |
|
Kawhi Leonard
Rotation
|
20.10 | 10.25 | 30.17 | 33.00 |
|
Kris Dunn
Rotation
|
18.89 | 9.63 | 28.36 | 9.50 |
|
Cam Christie
Rotation
|
13.65 | 6.96 | 20.49 | 9.00 |
|
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser
Rotation
|
12.15 | 6.20 | 18.24 | 10.50 |
New Orleans Pelicans
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Trey Murphy III
Starter
|
25.98 | 12.92 | 34.76 | 25.67 |
|
Jeremiah Fears
Rotation
|
22.83 | 11.35 | 30.54 | 14.33 |
|
Herbert Jones
Starter
|
22.67 | 11.27 | 30.33 | 8.00 |
|
Zion Williamson
Starter
|
22.33 | 11.10 | 29.88 | 23.33 |
|
Saddiq Bey
Starter
|
20.84 | 10.36 | 27.88 | 14.67 |
|
Yves Missi
Rotation
|
18.89 | 9.39 | 25.28 | 7.00 |
|
Derik Queen
Starter
|
16.96 | 8.43 | 22.70 | 8.67 |
|
Bryce McGowens
Rotation
|
13.78 | 6.85 | 18.44 | 5.67 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
-3.38
From team ratings
Player Adj
-1.00
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
220.98
Player Adj
222.90
Base: 220.98
Home Win Probability
LA Clippers
Baseline
61.08%
Dec: 1.64
|
Am: -157
Player Adj
53.00 %
Dec: 1.89
|
Am: -113
Confidence
58%