Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 9:30 pm ET
Delta Center
Game: 0022500867
Matchup
New Orleans Pelicans
Away
VS
Utah Jazz
Home
Projected Total
230.82
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -2.57 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Utah Jazz
Factor: 1.140
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
New Orleans Pelicans
Factor: 1.140
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
116.69
New Orleans Pelicans
Home Points
114.14
Utah Jazz
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +1.86
Δ Spread (H-A): -2.57
Δ Win%: -7.67%
- Baseline pace: 101.07 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -2.57, Total Δ +1.86.
- Win prob shift: -7.67 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.14 | Away 1.14.
Utah Jazz
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Keyonte George
Rotation
|
23.76 | 10.31 | 33.36 | 23.67 |
|
Ace Bailey
Starter
|
23.70 | 10.28 | 33.27 | 14.50 |
|
Brice Sensabaugh
Starter
|
22.65 | 9.83 | 31.79 | 30.75 |
|
Cody Williams
Starter
|
20.40 | 8.85 | 28.64 | 9.75 |
|
Kyle Filipowski
Starter
|
19.52 | 8.47 | 27.41 | 13.75 |
|
Isaiah Collier
Starter
|
19.36 | 8.40 | 27.18 | 10.50 |
|
Walter Clayton Jr.
Rotation
|
18.71 | 8.12 | 26.27 | 8.33 |
|
John Konchar
Rotation
|
17.90 | 7.77 | 25.13 | 6.00 |
New Orleans Pelicans
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Trey Murphy III
Starter
|
25.98 | 12.92 | 34.76 | 25.67 |
|
Jeremiah Fears
Rotation
|
22.83 | 11.35 | 30.54 | 14.33 |
|
Herbert Jones
Starter
|
22.67 | 11.27 | 30.33 | 8.00 |
|
Zion Williamson
Starter
|
22.33 | 11.10 | 29.88 | 23.33 |
|
Saddiq Bey
Starter
|
20.84 | 10.36 | 27.88 | 14.67 |
|
Yves Missi
Rotation
|
18.89 | 9.39 | 25.28 | 7.00 |
|
Derik Queen
Starter
|
16.96 | 8.43 | 22.70 | 8.67 |
|
Bryce McGowens
Rotation
|
13.78 | 6.85 | 18.44 | 5.67 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
-0.02
From team ratings
Player Adj
+2.55
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
228.96
Player Adj
230.82
Base: 228.96
Home Win Probability
Utah Jazz
Baseline
50.08%
Dec: 2.00
|
Am: -100
Player Adj
42.41 %
Dec: 2.36
|
Am: +136
Confidence
58%