Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 9:00 pm ET
Delta Center
Game: 0022500881
Matchup
Denver Nuggets
Away
VS
Utah Jazz
Home
Projected Total
232.53
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -2.60 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Utah Jazz
Factor: 1.140
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Denver Nuggets
Factor: 1.130
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
117.66
Denver Nuggets
Home Points
114.87
Utah Jazz
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +1.84
Δ Spread (H-A): -2.60
Δ Win%: -7.66%
- Baseline pace: 99.65 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -2.60, Total Δ +1.84.
- Win prob shift: -7.66 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.14 | Away 1.13.
Utah Jazz
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Keyonte George
Rotation
|
23.76 | 10.31 | 33.36 | 23.67 |
|
Ace Bailey
Starter
|
23.70 | 10.28 | 33.27 | 14.50 |
|
Brice Sensabaugh
Starter
|
22.65 | 9.83 | 31.79 | 30.75 |
|
Cody Williams
Starter
|
20.40 | 8.85 | 28.64 | 9.75 |
|
Kyle Filipowski
Starter
|
19.52 | 8.47 | 27.41 | 13.75 |
|
Isaiah Collier
Starter
|
19.36 | 8.40 | 27.18 | 10.50 |
|
Walter Clayton Jr.
Rotation
|
18.71 | 8.12 | 26.27 | 8.33 |
|
John Konchar
Rotation
|
17.90 | 7.77 | 25.13 | 6.00 |
Denver Nuggets
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jamal Murray
Rotation
|
28.52 | 15.90 | 38.15 | 33.00 |
|
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Rotation
|
26.76 | 14.92 | 35.80 | 12.00 |
|
Spencer Jones
Rotation
|
24.10 | 13.44 | 32.25 | 10.00 |
|
Peyton Watson
Rotation
|
22.91 | 12.77 | 30.65 | 18.00 |
|
Aaron Gordon
Rotation
|
22.36 | 12.47 | 29.92 | 22.00 |
|
Jalen Pickett
Rotation
|
20.61 | 11.49 | 27.57 | 9.00 |
|
Bruce Brown
Rotation
|
17.65 | 9.84 | 23.62 | 7.00 |
|
Zeke Nnaji
Rotation
|
13.06 | 7.28 | 17.48 | 4.00 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
+0.19
From team ratings
Player Adj
+2.79
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
230.69
Player Adj
232.53
Base: 230.69
Home Win Probability
Utah Jazz
Baseline
49.37%
Dec: 2.03
|
Am: +103
Player Adj
41.71 %
Dec: 2.40
|
Am: +140
Confidence
58%