Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 3:30 pm ET
Kaseya Center
Game: 0022500864
Matchup
Houston Rockets
Away
VS
Miami Heat
Home
Projected Total
220.22
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: +0.14 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Miami Heat
Factor: 1.150
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Houston Rockets
Factor: 0.950
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
107.21
Houston Rockets
Home Points
113.01
Miami Heat
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +0.72
Δ Spread (H-A): +0.14
Δ Win%: -1.40%
- Baseline pace: 100.21 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ +0.14, Total Δ +0.72.
- Win prob shift: -1.40 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.15 | Away 0.95.
Miami Heat
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Andrew Wiggins
Rotation
|
27.34 | 14.52 | 34.85 | 16.00 |
|
Bam Adebayo
Rotation
|
25.95 | 13.78 | 33.07 | 22.00 |
|
Norman Powell
Rotation
|
24.93 | 13.24 | 31.78 | 26.00 |
|
Tyler Herro
Rotation
|
24.31 | 12.91 | 30.98 | 22.00 |
|
Pelle Larsson
Rotation
|
23.32 | 12.38 | 29.72 | 7.00 |
|
Kasparas Jakučionis
Rotation
|
21.45 | 11.39 | 27.35 | 12.00 |
|
Simone Fontecchio
Rotation
|
13.18 | 7.00 | 16.80 | 3.00 |
|
Nikola Jović
Rotation
|
11.88 | 6.31 | 15.15 | 3.00 |
Houston Rockets
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kevin Durant
Rotation
|
27.08 | 14.21 | 38.40 | 29.00 |
|
Amen Thompson
Rotation
|
26.53 | 13.92 | 37.62 | 13.50 |
|
Jabari Smith Jr.
Rotation
|
25.10 | 13.17 | 35.59 | 13.00 |
|
Alperen Sengun
Rotation
|
22.82 | 11.97 | 32.36 | 19.50 |
|
Josh Okogie
Rotation
|
19.40 | 10.18 | 27.51 | 3.00 |
|
Steven Adams
Rotation
|
17.64 | 9.26 | 25.02 | 6.00 |
|
Reed Sheppard
Rotation
|
13.42 | 7.04 | 19.03 | 10.50 |
|
Dorian Finney-Smith
Rotation
|
11.34 | 5.95 | 16.07 | 0.00 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
-5.66
From team ratings
Player Adj
-5.80
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
219.50
Player Adj
220.22
Base: 219.50
Home Win Probability
Miami Heat
Baseline
68.13%
Dec: 1.47
|
Am: -214
Player Adj
66.73 %
Dec: 1.50
|
Am: -201
Confidence
58%