Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 7:00 pm ET
Capital One Arena
Game: 0022500879
Matchup
Houston Rockets
Away
VS
Washington Wizards
Home
Projected Total
221.32
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -2.54 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Washington Wizards
Factor: 0.950
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Houston Rockets
Factor: 0.950
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
113.35
Houston Rockets
Home Points
107.97
Washington Wizards
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: -0.62
Δ Spread (H-A): -2.54
Δ Win%: -6.24%
- Baseline pace: 98.95 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -2.54, Total Δ -0.62.
- Win prob shift: -6.24 pts.
- Team factors: Home 0.95 | Away 0.95.
Washington Wizards
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bub Carrington
Rotation
|
26.08 | 13.03 | 35.90 | 7.50 |
|
Tre Johnson
Rotation
|
20.74 | 10.36 | 28.55 | 14.00 |
|
Kyshawn George
Rotation
|
20.39 | 10.19 | 28.08 | 19.00 |
|
Khris Middleton
Rotation
|
19.85 | 9.92 | 27.33 | 17.00 |
|
Justin Champagnie
Rotation
|
19.37 | 9.68 | 26.67 | 11.00 |
|
Jamir Watkins
Rotation
|
18.99 | 9.49 | 26.15 | 6.00 |
|
Will Riley
Rotation
|
17.84 | 8.92 | 24.56 | 9.00 |
|
Marvin Bagley III
Rotation
|
16.77 | 8.38 | 23.08 | 11.50 |
Houston Rockets
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kevin Durant
Rotation
|
27.08 | 14.21 | 38.40 | 29.00 |
|
Amen Thompson
Rotation
|
26.53 | 13.92 | 37.62 | 13.50 |
|
Jabari Smith Jr.
Rotation
|
25.10 | 13.17 | 35.59 | 13.00 |
|
Alperen Sengun
Rotation
|
22.82 | 11.97 | 32.36 | 19.50 |
|
Josh Okogie
Rotation
|
19.40 | 10.18 | 27.51 | 3.00 |
|
Steven Adams
Rotation
|
17.64 | 9.26 | 25.02 | 6.00 |
|
Reed Sheppard
Rotation
|
13.42 | 7.04 | 19.03 | 10.50 |
|
Dorian Finney-Smith
Rotation
|
11.34 | 5.95 | 16.07 | 0.00 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
+2.84
From team ratings
Player Adj
+5.38
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
221.94
Player Adj
221.32
Base: 221.94
Home Win Probability
Washington Wizards
Baseline
40.64%
Dec: 2.46
|
Am: +146
Player Adj
34.40 %
Dec: 2.91
|
Am: +191
Confidence
58%