Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 3:30 pm ET
United Center
Game: 0022500870
Matchup
Milwaukee Bucks
Away
VS
Chicago Bulls
Home
Projected Total
230.17
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -1.50 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Chicago Bulls
Factor: 1.080
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Milwaukee Bucks
Factor: 1.000
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
116.30
Milwaukee Bucks
Home Points
113.87
Chicago Bulls
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +0.46
Δ Spread (H-A): -1.50
Δ Win%: -4.16%
- Baseline pace: 99.38 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -1.50, Total Δ +0.46.
- Win prob shift: -4.16 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.08 | Away 1.00.
Chicago Bulls
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Isaac Okoro
Rotation
|
26.74 | 13.81 | 33.14 | 9.00 |
|
Nikola Vučević
Rotation
|
25.60 | 13.22 | 31.72 | 27.00 |
|
Coby White
Rotation
|
25.42 | 13.13 | 31.51 | 11.50 |
|
Tre Jones
Rotation
|
22.52 | 11.63 | 27.92 | 9.00 |
|
Jalen Smith
Rotation
|
21.04 | 10.87 | 26.08 | 13.00 |
|
Matas Buzelis
Rotation
|
20.37 | 10.52 | 25.24 | 11.00 |
|
Ayo Dosunmu
Rotation
|
19.52 | 10.08 | 24.19 | 16.50 |
|
Patrick Williams
Rotation
|
14.10 | 7.28 | 17.48 | 10.00 |
Milwaukee Bucks
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ousmane Dieng
Starter
|
24.51 | 11.19 | 36.47 | 19.00 |
|
Kevin Porter Jr.
Starter
|
18.48 | 8.44 | 27.50 | 6.00 |
|
AJ Green
Starter
|
17.83 | 8.14 | 26.52 | 11.50 |
|
Ryan Rollins
Rotation
|
17.39 | 7.94 | 25.87 | 6.00 |
|
Kyle Kuzma
Starter
|
16.86 | 7.70 | 25.08 | 16.00 |
|
Bobby Portis
Rotation
|
16.63 | 7.59 | 24.74 | 14.00 |
|
Myles Turner
Rotation
|
15.24 | 6.96 | 22.68 | 5.00 |
|
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Rotation
|
14.79 | 6.75 | 22.00 | 21.00 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
+0.93
From team ratings
Player Adj
+2.43
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
229.71
Player Adj
230.17
Base: 229.71
Home Win Probability
Chicago Bulls
Baseline
46.92%
Dec: 2.13
|
Am: +113
Player Adj
42.76 %
Dec: 2.34
|
Am: +134
Confidence
58%