Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 8:00 pm ET
TD Garden
Game: 0022500874
Matchup
Philadelphia 76ers
Away
VS
Boston Celtics
Home
Projected Total
221.17
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -1.68 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Boston Celtics
Factor: 1.150
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Philadelphia 76ers
Factor: 1.080
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
107.21
Philadelphia 76ers
Home Points
113.96
Boston Celtics
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +1.58
Δ Spread (H-A): -1.68
Δ Win%: -6.68%
- Baseline pace: 95.73 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -1.68, Total Δ +1.58.
- Win prob shift: -6.68 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.15 | Away 1.08.
Boston Celtics
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Derrick White
Rotation
|
24.94 | 11.69 | 30.79 | 7.50 |
|
Jaylen Brown
Rotation
|
24.19 | 11.34 | 29.86 | 34.00 |
|
Sam Hauser
Rotation
|
24.10 | 11.30 | 29.76 | 23.50 |
|
Anfernee Simons
Rotation
|
23.47 | 11.00 | 28.98 | 26.50 |
|
Payton Pritchard
Rotation
|
19.45 | 9.12 | 24.02 | 2.00 |
|
Hugo González
Rotation
|
17.60 | 8.25 | 21.74 | 4.50 |
|
Neemias Queta
Rotation
|
17.57 | 8.24 | 21.69 | 11.50 |
|
Luka Garza
Rotation
|
16.34 | 7.66 | 20.18 | 7.50 |
Philadelphia 76ers
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tyrese Maxey
Rotation
|
26.68 | 13.74 | 34.92 | 18.00 |
|
VJ Edgecombe
Rotation
|
23.42 | 12.06 | 30.65 | 9.50 |
|
Paul George
Rotation
|
22.91 | 11.80 | 29.99 | 15.50 |
|
Joel Embiid
Rotation
|
22.18 | 11.42 | 29.03 | 26.50 |
|
Quentin Grimes
Rotation
|
20.46 | 10.54 | 26.78 | 11.00 |
|
Kelly Oubre Jr.
Rotation
|
19.92 | 10.26 | 26.07 | 9.50 |
|
Trendon Watford
Rotation
|
10.46 | 5.39 | 13.69 | 3.50 |
|
Adem Bona
Rotation
|
9.90 | 5.10 | 12.96 | 5.00 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
-8.43
From team ratings
Player Adj
-6.75
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
219.59
Player Adj
221.17
Base: 219.59
Home Win Probability
Boston Celtics
Baseline
75.89%
Dec: 1.32
|
Am: -315
Player Adj
69.21 %
Dec: 1.44
|
Am: -225
Confidence
58%