Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 6:00 pm ET
State Farm Arena
Game: 0022500873
Matchup
Portland Trail Blazers
Away
VS
Atlanta Hawks
Home
Projected Total
233.40
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -5.45 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Atlanta Hawks
Factor: 0.940
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Portland Trail Blazers
Factor: 1.150
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
116.85
Portland Trail Blazers
Home Points
116.55
Atlanta Hawks
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +0.56
Δ Spread (H-A): -5.45
Δ Win%: -17.51%
- Baseline pace: 101.90 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -5.45, Total Δ +0.56.
- Win prob shift: -17.51 pts.
- Team factors: Home 0.94 | Away 1.15.
Atlanta Hawks
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jalen Johnson
Rotation
|
26.40 | 13.41 | 36.56 | 12.00 |
|
Onyeka Okongwu
Rotation
|
25.16 | 12.78 | 34.84 | 23.50 |
|
Dyson Daniels
Rotation
|
24.12 | 12.25 | 33.40 | 10.00 |
|
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Rotation
|
21.24 | 10.79 | 29.42 | 14.50 |
|
CJ McCollum
Rotation
|
20.03 | 10.17 | 27.74 | 15.50 |
|
Luke Kennard
Rotation
|
15.16 | 7.70 | 21.00 | 3.50 |
|
Mouhamed Gueye
Rotation
|
14.52 | 7.37 | 20.11 | 5.50 |
|
Vít Krejčí
Rotation
|
14.30 | 7.26 | 19.80 | 5.50 |
Portland Trail Blazers
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Toumani Camara
Starter
|
24.52 | 11.20 | 33.58 | 12.50 |
|
Shaedon Sharpe
Rotation
|
24.24 | 11.07 | 33.20 | 24.00 |
|
Donovan Clingan
Starter
|
21.83 | 9.97 | 29.90 | 16.00 |
|
Jerami Grant
Starter
|
20.38 | 9.31 | 27.92 | 17.00 |
|
Jrue Holiday
Starter
|
19.54 | 8.93 | 26.76 | 21.50 |
|
Sidy Cissoko
Starter
|
18.98 | 8.67 | 25.98 | 7.00 |
|
Vít Krejčí
Rotation
|
18.61 | 8.50 | 25.48 | 11.00 |
|
Caleb Love
Rotation
|
14.72 | 6.72 | 20.16 | 11.50 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
-5.15
From team ratings
Player Adj
+0.30
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
232.84
Player Adj
233.40
Base: 232.84
Home Win Probability
Atlanta Hawks
Baseline
66.61%
Dec: 1.50
|
Am: -199
Player Adj
49.10 %
Dec: 2.04
|
Am: +104
Confidence
58%