Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 1:00 pm ET
Spectrum Center
Game: 0022500863
Matchup
Portland Trail Blazers
Away
VS
Charlotte Hornets
Home
Projected Total
229.06
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -2.44 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Charlotte Hornets
Factor: 1.150
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Portland Trail Blazers
Factor: 1.150
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
110.84
Portland Trail Blazers
Home Points
118.22
Charlotte Hornets
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +2.06
Δ Spread (H-A): -2.44
Δ Win%: -8.55%
- Baseline pace: 99.63 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -2.44, Total Δ +2.06.
- Win prob shift: -8.55 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.15 | Away 1.15.
Charlotte Hornets
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brandon Miller
Rotation
|
29.00 | 16.47 | 39.53 | 26.00 |
|
Miles Bridges
Rotation
|
24.26 | 13.78 | 33.08 | 25.00 |
|
Kon Knueppel
Rotation
|
23.88 | 13.56 | 32.55 | 19.00 |
|
Moussa Diabaté
Rotation
|
22.11 | 12.56 | 30.13 | 8.00 |
|
LaMelo Ball
Rotation
|
20.98 | 11.92 | 28.60 | 30.00 |
|
Sion James
Rotation
|
12.35 | 7.01 | 16.83 | 9.00 |
|
Ryan Kalkbrenner
Rotation
|
11.16 | 6.34 | 15.22 | 9.00 |
|
Collin Sexton
Rotation
|
10.25 | 5.82 | 13.97 | 6.00 |
Portland Trail Blazers
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Toumani Camara
Starter
|
24.52 | 11.20 | 33.58 | 12.50 |
|
Shaedon Sharpe
Rotation
|
24.24 | 11.07 | 33.20 | 24.00 |
|
Donovan Clingan
Starter
|
21.83 | 9.97 | 29.90 | 16.00 |
|
Jerami Grant
Starter
|
20.38 | 9.31 | 27.92 | 17.00 |
|
Jrue Holiday
Starter
|
19.54 | 8.93 | 26.76 | 21.50 |
|
Sidy Cissoko
Starter
|
18.98 | 8.67 | 25.98 | 7.00 |
|
Vít Krejčí
Rotation
|
18.61 | 8.50 | 25.48 | 11.00 |
|
Caleb Love
Rotation
|
14.72 | 6.72 | 20.16 | 11.50 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
-9.82
From team ratings
Player Adj
-7.38
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
227.00
Player Adj
229.06
Base: 227.00
Home Win Probability
Charlotte Hornets
Baseline
79.35%
Dec: 1.26
|
Am: -384
Player Adj
70.80 %
Dec: 1.41
|
Am: -242
Confidence
58%