Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 1:00 pm ET
Madison Square Garden
Game: 0022500868
Matchup
San Antonio Spurs
Away
VS
New York Knicks
Home
Projected Total
224.31
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -4.28 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
New York Knicks
Factor: 1.020
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
San Antonio Spurs
Factor: 1.150
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
111.90
San Antonio Spurs
Home Points
112.41
New York Knicks
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +1.28
Δ Spread (H-A): -4.28
Δ Win%: -13.98%
- Baseline pace: 99.48 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -4.28, Total Δ +1.28.
- Win prob shift: -13.98 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.02 | Away 1.15.
New York Knicks
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Mikal Bridges
Rotation
|
26.46 | 13.48 | 35.17 | 20.00 |
|
Josh Hart
Rotation
|
25.91 | 13.20 | 34.44 | 7.50 |
|
OG Anunoby
Rotation
|
24.33 | 12.40 | 32.34 | 20.00 |
|
Miles McBride
Rotation
|
24.20 | 12.33 | 32.17 | 17.50 |
|
Karl-Anthony Towns
Rotation
|
24.08 | 12.27 | 32.01 | 15.00 |
|
Jordan Clarkson
Rotation
|
15.62 | 7.96 | 20.76 | 11.00 |
|
Mitchell Robinson
Rotation
|
14.35 | 7.31 | 19.07 | 8.00 |
|
Tyler Kolek
Rotation
|
13.09 | 6.67 | 17.40 | 3.50 |
San Antonio Spurs
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Stephon Castle
Rotation
|
24.28 | 10.92 | 26.20 | 19.00 |
|
Dylan Harper
Rotation
|
23.33 | 10.49 | 25.18 | 13.00 |
|
Julian Champagnie
Rotation
|
21.93 | 9.86 | 23.67 | 13.00 |
|
De'Aaron Fox
Rotation
|
21.31 | 9.58 | 23.00 | 18.00 |
|
Victor Wembanyama
Rotation
|
20.13 | 9.05 | 21.72 | 22.00 |
|
Keldon Johnson
Rotation
|
19.75 | 8.88 | 21.32 | 7.00 |
|
Carter Bryant
Rotation
|
18.68 | 8.40 | 20.15 | 2.00 |
|
Luke Kornet
Rotation
|
18.64 | 8.38 | 20.12 | 10.00 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
-4.79
From team ratings
Player Adj
-0.51
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
223.03
Player Adj
224.31
Base: 223.03
Home Win Probability
New York Knicks
Baseline
65.51%
Dec: 1.53
|
Am: -190
Player Adj
51.53 %
Dec: 1.94
|
Am: -106
Confidence
58%