Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 8:00 pm ET
American Airlines Center
Game: 0022500876
Matchup
Oklahoma City Thunder
Away
VS
Dallas Mavericks
Home
Projected Total
228.71
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -0.30 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Dallas Mavericks
Factor: 1.150
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Factor: 0.990
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
115.99
Oklahoma City Thunder
Home Points
112.73
Dallas Mavericks
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +0.89
Δ Spread (H-A): -0.30
Δ Win%: +0.08%
- Baseline pace: 101.08 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -0.30, Total Δ +0.89.
- Win prob shift: +0.08 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.15 | Away 0.99.
Dallas Mavericks
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
P.J. Washington
Starter
|
22.22 | 8.50 | 32.45 | 15.00 |
|
Naji Marshall
Starter
|
20.54 | 7.86 | 29.99 | 20.25 |
|
Max Christie
Starter
|
19.15 | 7.33 | 27.96 | 20.50 |
|
Brandon Williams
Starter
|
18.27 | 6.99 | 26.67 | 19.25 |
|
Caleb Martin
Rotation
|
16.68 | 6.38 | 24.36 | 10.67 |
|
Jaden Hardy
Rotation
|
16.11 | 6.16 | 23.53 | 13.00 |
|
Daniel Gafford
Starter
|
15.67 | 5.99 | 22.88 | 4.00 |
|
Klay Thompson
Rotation
|
15.41 | 5.89 | 22.50 | 16.50 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Rotation
|
23.94 | 10.52 | 32.65 | 20.00 |
|
Jalen Williams
Rotation
|
22.95 | 10.08 | 31.30 | 6.00 |
|
Chet Holmgren
Starter
|
20.64 | 9.07 | 28.15 | 17.00 |
|
Cason Wallace
Starter
|
18.61 | 8.18 | 25.38 | 5.50 |
|
Luguentz Dort
Starter
|
18.08 | 7.94 | 24.66 | 11.00 |
|
Jared McCain
Rotation
|
17.64 | 7.75 | 24.05 | 13.00 |
|
Ajay Mitchell
Rotation
|
16.82 | 7.39 | 22.93 | 17.00 |
|
Aaron Wiggins
Rotation
|
14.41 | 6.33 | 19.66 | 5.00 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
+2.96
From team ratings
Player Adj
+3.26
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
227.82
Player Adj
228.71
Base: 227.82
Home Win Probability
Dallas Mavericks
Baseline
40.26%
Dec: 2.48
|
Am: +148
Player Adj
40.34 %
Dec: 2.48
|
Am: +148
Confidence
58%