Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 7:00 pm ET
Capital One Arena
Game: 0022500865
Matchup
Toronto Raptors
Away
VS
Washington Wizards
Home
Projected Total
228.90
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -3.98 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Washington Wizards
Factor: 0.950
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Toronto Raptors
Factor: 1.060
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
118.22
Toronto Raptors
Home Points
110.68
Washington Wizards
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +0.08
Δ Spread (H-A): -3.98
Δ Win%: -9.52%
- Baseline pace: 101.03 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -3.98, Total Δ +0.08.
- Win prob shift: -9.52 pts.
- Team factors: Home 0.95 | Away 1.06.
Washington Wizards
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bub Carrington
Rotation
|
26.08 | 13.03 | 35.90 | 7.50 |
|
Tre Johnson
Rotation
|
20.74 | 10.36 | 28.55 | 14.00 |
|
Kyshawn George
Rotation
|
20.39 | 10.19 | 28.08 | 19.00 |
|
Khris Middleton
Rotation
|
19.85 | 9.92 | 27.33 | 17.00 |
|
Justin Champagnie
Rotation
|
19.37 | 9.68 | 26.67 | 11.00 |
|
Jamir Watkins
Rotation
|
18.99 | 9.49 | 26.15 | 6.00 |
|
Will Riley
Rotation
|
17.84 | 8.92 | 24.56 | 9.00 |
|
Marvin Bagley III
Rotation
|
16.77 | 8.38 | 23.08 | 11.50 |
Toronto Raptors
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Scottie Barnes
Rotation
|
27.26 | 14.42 | 39.49 | 25.00 |
|
Brandon Ingram
Rotation
|
26.69 | 14.12 | 38.67 | 24.50 |
|
Jamal Shead
Rotation
|
25.20 | 13.33 | 36.50 | 11.00 |
|
Collin Murray-Boyles
Rotation
|
23.38 | 12.37 | 33.86 | 10.50 |
|
Ochai Agbaji
Rotation
|
20.66 | 10.93 | 29.92 | 12.50 |
|
Gradey Dick
Rotation
|
19.87 | 10.51 | 28.78 | 18.00 |
|
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Rotation
|
15.31 | 8.10 | 22.17 | 13.00 |
|
Jamison Battle
Rotation
|
13.48 | 7.13 | 19.52 | 5.00 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
+3.56
From team ratings
Player Adj
+7.54
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
228.82
Player Adj
228.90
Base: 228.82
Home Win Probability
Washington Wizards
Baseline
38.33%
Dec: 2.61
|
Am: +161
Player Adj
28.81 %
Dec: 3.47
|
Am: +247
Confidence
58%