Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 5:00 pm ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Game: 0022500872
Matchup
Memphis Grizzlies
Away
VS
Indiana Pacers
Home
Projected Total
235.55
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -3.60 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Indiana Pacers
Factor: 1.020
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Memphis Grizzlies
Factor: 1.100
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
117.45
Memphis Grizzlies
Home Points
118.11
Indiana Pacers
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +0.83
Δ Spread (H-A): -3.61
Δ Win%: -11.92%
- Baseline pace: 101.02 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -3.61, Total Δ +0.83.
- Win prob shift: -11.92 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.02 | Away 1.10.
Indiana Pacers
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Pascal Siakam
Rotation
|
24.25 | 10.88 | 34.61 | 26.50 |
|
Andrew Nembhard
Rotation
|
22.70 | 10.19 | 32.40 | 16.50 |
|
Aaron Nesmith
Rotation
|
22.29 | 10.00 | 31.81 | 9.00 |
|
Johnny Furphy
Rotation
|
18.52 | 8.31 | 26.44 | 7.33 |
|
Jarace Walker
Rotation
|
15.46 | 6.94 | 22.07 | 10.00 |
|
Micah Potter
Rotation
|
14.34 | 6.44 | 20.47 | 1.00 |
|
Jay Huff
Rotation
|
13.59 | 6.10 | 19.39 | 13.00 |
|
Tony Bradley
Rotation
|
13.08 | 5.87 | 18.68 | 5.67 |
Memphis Grizzlies
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Rotation
|
26.56 | 13.60 | 32.65 | 30.00 |
|
Santi Aldama
Rotation
|
24.64 | 12.62 | 30.28 | 18.00 |
|
Jock Landale
Rotation
|
24.29 | 12.44 | 29.85 | 6.00 |
|
Cedric Coward
Rotation
|
22.33 | 11.44 | 27.45 | 17.00 |
|
Cam Spencer
Rotation
|
21.93 | 11.23 | 26.95 | 7.00 |
|
GG Jackson
Rotation
|
18.00 | 9.22 | 22.13 | 15.00 |
|
Vince Williams Jr.
Rotation
|
16.80 | 8.60 | 20.65 | 10.00 |
|
John Konchar
Rotation
|
14.99 | 7.68 | 18.42 | 6.00 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
-4.27
From team ratings
Player Adj
-0.66
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
234.72
Player Adj
235.55
Base: 234.72
Home Win Probability
Indiana Pacers
Baseline
63.90%
Dec: 1.56
|
Am: -177
Player Adj
51.98 %
Dec: 1.92
|
Am: -108
Confidence
58%