Matchup
Baseline projection (team ratings) + player-adjusted fair lines (relevance snapshots).
Output: Spread • Total • Moneyline
Spread convention: Sportsbook (Home -X favored)
Status: 6:00 pm ET
Kia Center
Game: 0022500875
Matchup
Detroit Pistons
Away
VS
Orlando Magic
Home
Projected Total
227.64
Player-adjusted (fair engine).
Model Adjustments
Team factors + player impact
Player Impact: -1.51 pts to Home
Confidence: 58%
Confidence
0.58
Orlando Magic
Factor: 1.140
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Detroit Pistons
Factor: 1.070
Baseline = 1.00 (higher = stronger)
Away Points
117.34
Detroit Pistons
Home Points
110.31
Orlando Magic
Insights
What the player model changes
Δ Total: +1.44
Δ Spread (H-A): -1.51
Δ Win%: -2.20%
- Baseline pace: 99.63 possessions.
- Player-adjusted move: Spread Δ -1.51, Total Δ +1.44.
- Win prob shift: -2.20 pts.
- Team factors: Home 1.14 | Away 1.07.
Orlando Magic
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Paolo Banchero
Rotation
|
28.13 | 15.45 | 37.07 | 26.00 |
|
Anthony Black
Rotation
|
26.95 | 14.80 | 35.52 | 21.00 |
|
Desmond Bane
Rotation
|
25.63 | 14.07 | 33.78 | 13.00 |
|
Wendell Carter Jr.
Rotation
|
21.65 | 11.89 | 28.53 | 9.00 |
|
Franz Wagner
Rotation
|
20.25 | 11.12 | 26.68 | 18.00 |
|
Tristan da Silva
Rotation
|
16.32 | 8.96 | 21.50 | 8.00 |
|
Noah Penda
Rotation
|
13.39 | 7.35 | 17.65 | 9.00 |
|
Moritz Wagner
Rotation
|
10.95 | 6.01 | 14.43 | 7.00 |
Detroit Pistons
Expected starters (last 10)
| Player | Rel | Min% | Min | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cade Cunningham
Rotation
|
25.10 | 11.88 | 29.84 | 13.00 |
|
Jalen Duren
Rotation
|
21.59 | 10.22 | 25.67 | 15.50 |
|
Duncan Robinson
Rotation
|
20.68 | 9.79 | 24.58 | 17.50 |
|
Tobias Harris
Rotation
|
19.48 | 9.22 | 23.17 | 11.50 |
|
Ronald Holland II
Rotation
|
19.25 | 9.11 | 22.88 | 9.00 |
|
Isaiah Stewart
Rotation
|
17.93 | 8.49 | 21.32 | 5.50 |
|
Jaden Ivey
Rotation
|
16.00 | 7.57 | 19.02 | 10.00 |
|
Caris LeVert
Rotation
|
15.12 | 7.16 | 17.98 | 6.00 |
Notes: Expected starters are inferred from the last 10 final games (minutes-based heuristic). Injuries come later.
Lines
Baseline vs Player-Adjusted
Spread (Sportsbook)
Home line (fav = negative)
Baseline
+5.52
From team ratings
Player Adj
+7.03
From relevance
Total
Projected points
Baseline
226.20
Player Adj
227.64
Base: 226.20
Home Win Probability
Orlando Magic
Baseline
32.28%
Dec: 3.10
|
Am: +210
Player Adj
30.08 %
Dec: 3.32
|
Am: +232
Confidence
58%