Projection Accuracy
League-wide model proof dashboard across saved backtest records.
Games: 330
Player rows: 11696
Scope: current season only
Spread MAE
Baseline
12.69
Fair
20.98
Total MAE
Baseline
14.72
Fair
13.47
Minutes MAE
8.41
Points MAE
5.42
PRA MAE
7.92
Rebounds MAE
1.97
Assists MAE
1.33
3PM MAE
1.00
By Tier
Core vs Rotation vs Bench
| Tier | Rows | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | PRA | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core | 2540 | 10.15 | 8.20 | 2.82 | 2.11 | 11.21 | 1.77 |
| Rotation | 3262 | 11.61 | 7.59 | 2.64 | 1.85 | 11.07 | 1.37 |
| Bench | 2227 | 9.73 | 5.17 | 2.11 | 1.25 | 8.06 | 0.87 |
| Fringe | 3667 | 3.55 | 1.70 | 0.68 | 0.39 | 2.75 | 0.22 |
By Role / Injury State
Starter and health context
| Role | Rows | MIN | PTS | PRA | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected Starters | 3072 | 10.68 | 8.39 | 11.61 | 1.71 |
| Rotation / Bench | 8624 | 7.60 | 4.36 | 6.60 | 0.75 |
| Injury Bucket | Rows | MIN | PTS | PRA | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day-To-Day | 1425 | 8.23 | 5.74 | 7.89 | 1.17 |
| Healthy / No flag | 3281 | 10.58 | 6.42 | 9.54 | 1.10 |
| Other flagged | 4475 | 10.15 | 6.76 | 9.88 | 1.30 |
| Out | 2515 | 2.58 | 1.53 | 2.32 | 0.25 |
By Team
Sorted by points MAE
| Team | Rows | MIN | PTS | PRA | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charlotte Hornets
|
396 | 3.40 | 3.06 | 4.13 | 0.76 |
Portland Trail Blazers
|
360 | 5.62 | 3.35 | 4.54 | 1.05 |
Orlando Magic
|
374 | 4.38 | 3.62 | 4.84 | 0.73 |
Toronto Raptors
|
374 | 4.05 | 3.69 | 5.44 | 0.63 |
San Antonio Spurs
|
396 | 5.25 | 4.04 | 5.69 | 0.92 |
Washington Wizards
|
522 | 5.88 | 4.15 | 5.44 | 0.78 |
Los Angeles Lakers
|
396 | 6.86 | 4.18 | 6.21 | 0.75 |
Golden State Warriors
|
374 | 7.05 | 4.22 | 5.81 | 0.97 |
Philadelphia 76ers
|
432 | 4.75 | 4.28 | 5.76 | 0.98 |
LA Clippers
|
396 | 5.25 | 4.42 | 5.82 | 0.96 |
Brooklyn Nets
|
432 | 8.38 | 4.54 | 6.50 | 0.81 |
Milwaukee Bucks
|
396 | 7.91 | 4.67 | 6.91 | 0.96 |
Memphis Grizzlies
|
396 | 9.06 | 4.77 | 7.23 | 0.91 |
Indiana Pacers
|
432 | 7.83 | 4.80 | 7.22 | 1.03 |
Miami Heat
|
396 | 6.09 | 4.89 | 6.57 | 0.99 |
Chicago Bulls
|
486 | 8.72 | 4.97 | 7.35 | 1.09 |
Detroit Pistons
|
396 | 6.07 | 5.03 | 7.10 | 0.65 |
Sacramento Kings
|
255 | 7.24 | 5.07 | 7.03 | 1.07 |
Houston Rockets
|
374 | 9.59 | 6.35 | 10.05 | 0.95 |
New York Knicks
|
360 | 11.57 | 6.54 | 9.68 | 1.08 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
|
396 | 10.98 | 6.59 | 10.54 | 1.12 |
Utah Jazz
|
270 | 9.63 | 7.04 | 10.51 | 1.11 |
Atlanta Hawks
|
396 | 10.80 | 7.05 | 10.47 | 1.26 |
Denver Nuggets
|
396 | 11.84 | 7.06 | 11.05 | 1.34 |
Boston Celtics
|
405 | 11.53 | 7.30 | 10.74 | 1.42 |
Dallas Mavericks
|
396 | 11.75 | 7.32 | 10.81 | 0.98 |
Minnesota Timberwolves
|
432 | 13.74 | 7.41 | 11.11 | 1.12 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
|
396 | 12.42 | 7.75 | 11.72 | 1.19 |
New Orleans Pelicans
|
270 | 13.70 | 7.86 | 11.93 | 0.92 |
Phoenix Suns
|
396 | 12.71 | 7.86 | 11.58 | 1.51 |
Lower MAE is better. This page is built from persisted accuracy rows only, not recalculated live.