Optimization Diagnostics

Edge Diagnostics

Validate whether the model’s chosen edge actually converts into realized wins. This page is the decision-quality layer: hit rate, threshold effectiveness, strongest and weakest market families, and forensic review of top winners and losers.

Projection Model 45

Games 202

Actionable Rows 10,909

Settled Rows 5,736

Filters

Diagnostic Window

Overall Hit Rate

49.65%

Settled actionable edges only

Qualified Hit Rate

49.38%

Threshold-qualified actionable edges only

Positive Edge Hit

49.68

Positive actionable edges only

Avg Edge Value

2.306

All actionable edge rows

Avg Qualified Edge

3.823

Threshold-qualified actionable rows

Settled %

52.58%

Actionable rows with realized outcome

Threshold Effectiveness

49.38% vs 49.65%

Thresholding is not yet improving realized win rate. Qualification policy still needs work.

Best Market Family

Spread

76.72% hit rate across 189 settled rows.

Weakest Market Family

Moneyline

23.53% hit rate across 119 settled rows.

Performance by Market

Market Type Validation

Market	Rows	Settled	Settled %	Hit Rate	Avg Edge	Avg Score	Qualified	Qualified %
PlayerPoints 2,099 positive actionable edges	2,101	1,101	52.40%	48.59%	3.610	3.610	1,518	72.25%
PlayerAssists 2,070 positive actionable edges	2,081	1,084	52.09%	50.37%	0.702	0.702	517	24.84%
PlayerRebounds 2,066 positive actionable edges	2,075	1,074	51.76%	52.42%	0.922	0.922	751	36.19%
PlayerPra 2,062 positive actionable edges	2,071	1,085	52.39%	47.47%	4.339	4.339	1,429	69.00%
PlayerThreesMade 1,828 positive actionable edges	1,831	950	51.88%	48.21%	1.097	1.097	1,032	56.36%
Spread 309 positive actionable edges	309	189	61.17%	76.72%	5.039	5.039	277	89.64%
Total 238 positive actionable edges	239	134	56.07%	43.28%	6.768	6.768	193	80.75%
Moneyline 189 positive actionable edges	202	119	58.91%	23.53%	0.121	12.136	174	86.14%

Research Guidance

Decision Brief

Threshold Read

49.38% vs 49.65%

Qualification is not yet filtering enough noise.

Signal Density

3.823

Average qualified edge value across actionable rows.

Best realized market family so far is Spread (76.7% hit rate).

Weakest realized market family so far is Moneyline (23.5% hit rate).

Strongest hit-rate segment is Market Type: Spread.

Most fragile segment is Market Type: Moneyline.

Thresholding is not yet improving realized hit rate. Review edge qualification rules.

Side Split

Bet Side

Over

7,391 rows · 3,931 settled

47.04% 4,388 qualified

Under

3,007 rows · 1,497 settled

55.18% 1,052 qualified

Home

278 rows · 169 settled

65.68% 245 qualified

Away

233 rows · 139 settled

44.60% 206 qualified

Qualification Split

Threshold

Threshold Qualified

5,891 rows · 3,125 settled

49.38% 3.823

Below Threshold

5,018 rows · 2,611 settled

49.98% 0.524

Strength Split

Edge Buckets

<0.01

46 rows · 0 qualified

44.44% 0.000

0.01-0.03

126 rows · 9 qualified

37.10% 0.013

0.03-0.05

136 rows · 13 qualified

47.95% 0.036

0.05-0.10

305 rows · 41 qualified

52.78% 0.070

0.10+

10,296 rows · 5,828 qualified

49.76% 2.440

High Confidence Zones

Strongest Hit-Rate Segments

Market Type

Spread

76.72%

Settled 189

Avg Edge 5.039

Qualified 277

Bet Side

Home

65.68%

Settled 169

Avg Edge 4.050

Qualified 245

Bet Side

Under

55.18%

Settled 1,497

Avg Edge 1.456

Qualified 1,052

Edge Bucket

0.05-0.10

52.78%

Settled 144

Avg Edge 0.070

Qualified 41

Market Type

PlayerRebounds

52.42%

Settled 1,074

Avg Edge 0.922

Qualified 751

Market Type

PlayerAssists

50.37%

Settled 1,084

Avg Edge 0.702

Qualified 517

Threshold

Below Threshold

49.98%

Settled 2,611

Avg Edge 0.524

Qualified 0

Edge Bucket

0.10+

49.76%

Settled 5,430

Avg Edge 2.440

Qualified 5,828

Threshold

Threshold Qualified

49.38%

Settled 3,125

Avg Edge 3.823

Qualified 5,891

Market Type

PlayerPoints

48.59%

Settled 1,101

Avg Edge 3.610

Qualified 1,518

Fragile Zones

Weakest Hit-Rate Segments

Market Type

Moneyline

23.53%

Settled 119

Avg Edge 0.121

Qualified 174

Edge Bucket

0.01-0.03

37.10%

Settled 62

Avg Edge 0.013

Qualified 9

Market Type

Total

43.28%

Settled 134

Avg Edge 6.768

Qualified 193

Edge Bucket

<0.01

44.44%

Settled 27

Avg Edge 0.000

Qualified 0

Bet Side

Away

44.60%

Settled 139

Avg Edge 1.957

Qualified 206

Bet Side

Over

47.04%

Settled 3,931

Avg Edge 2.597

Qualified 4,388

Market Type

PlayerPra

47.47%

Settled 1,085

Avg Edge 4.339

Qualified 1,429

Edge Bucket

0.03-0.05

47.95%

Settled 73

Avg Edge 0.036

Qualified 13

Market Type

PlayerThreesMade

48.21%

Settled 950

Avg Edge 1.097

Qualified 1,032

Market Type

PlayerPoints

48.59%

Settled 1,101

Avg Edge 3.610

Qualified 1,518

Forensic Review

Best Realized Edges

0022501129

Spread · Home

Washington Wizards

Miami Heat

Won

Edge 13.970

Score 13.970

Line -18.000

Model -4.030

Actual 16.000

Prediction Miss Distance

20.030

Model: -4.030 Actual: 16.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

0022501139

Spread · Home

Utah Jazz

Oklahoma City Thunder

Won

Edge 8.910

Score 8.910

Line -24.000

Model -15.090

Actual 35.000

Prediction Miss Distance

50.090

Model: -15.090 Actual: 35.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

0022501037

Spread · Home

Memphis Grizzlies

Atlanta Hawks

Won

Edge 10.010

Score 10.010

Line -14.000

Model -3.990

Actual 39.000

Prediction Miss Distance

42.990

Model: -3.990 Actual: 39.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Brandin Podziemski

PlayerPra · Over

Houston Rockets

Golden State Warriors

Won

Edge 14.670

Score 14.670

Line 21.500

Model 36.170

Actual 23.000

Prediction Miss Distance

13.170

Model: 36.170 Actual: 23.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

PlayerPoints · Over

Atlanta Hawks

Boston Celtics

Won

Edge 14.240

Score 14.240

Line 18.500

Model 32.740

Actual 20.000

Prediction Miss Distance

12.740

Model: 32.740 Actual: 20.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

0022501070

Spread · Home

Chicago Bulls

Oklahoma City Thunder

Won

Edge 12.230

Score 12.230

Line -19.500

Model -7.270

Actual 18.000

Prediction Miss Distance

25.270

Model: -7.270 Actual: 18.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

0022501061

Spread · Home

Milwaukee Bucks

Portland Trail Blazers

Won

Edge 11.050

Score 11.050

Line -12.500

Model -1.450

Actual 31.000

Prediction Miss Distance

32.450

Model: -1.450 Actual: 31.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

0022501129

Spread · Home

Washington Wizards

Miami Heat

Won

Edge 12.970

Score 12.970

Line -17.000

Model -4.030

Actual 16.000

Prediction Miss Distance

20.030

Model: -4.030 Actual: 16.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Luke Kennard

PlayerPra · Under

Oklahoma City Thunder

Los Angeles Lakers

Won

Edge 14.230

Score 14.230

Line 23.500

Model 9.270

Actual 21.000

Prediction Miss Distance

11.730

Model: 9.270 Actual: 21.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

0022501159

Spread · Home

Minnesota Timberwolves

Orlando Magic

Won

Edge 14.850

Score 14.850

Line -10.500

Model 4.350

Actual 12.000

Prediction Miss Distance

7.650

Model: 4.350 Actual: 12.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

LaMelo Ball

PlayerPra · Over

Indiana Pacers

Charlotte Hornets

Won

Edge 13.790

Score 13.790

Line 32.500

Model 46.290

Actual 33.000

Prediction Miss Distance

13.290

Model: 46.290 Actual: 33.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

0022501061

Spread · Home

Milwaukee Bucks

Portland Trail Blazers

Won

Edge 10.550

Score 10.550

Line -12.000

Model -1.450

Actual 31.000

Prediction Miss Distance

32.450

Model: -1.450 Actual: 31.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

VJ Edgecombe

PlayerPra · Over

Philadelphia 76ers

San Antonio Spurs

Won

Edge 14.010

Score 14.010

Line 21.500

Model 35.510

Actual 25.000

Prediction Miss Distance

10.510

Model: 35.510 Actual: 25.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Precious Achiuwa

PlayerPra · Over

Sacramento Kings

Atlanta Hawks

Won

Edge 13.670

Score 13.670

Line 22.500

Model 36.170

Actual 24.000

Prediction Miss Distance

12.170

Model: 36.170 Actual: 24.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

CJ McCollum

PlayerPra · Over

New York Knicks

Atlanta Hawks

Won

Edge 13.390

Score 13.390

Line 25.500

Model 38.890

Actual 26.000

Prediction Miss Distance

12.890

Model: 38.890 Actual: 26.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

0022501034

Spread · Home

Washington Wizards

New York Knicks

Won

Edge 8.220

Score 8.220

Line -21.000

Model -12.780

Actual 32.000

Prediction Miss Distance

44.780

Model: -12.780 Actual: 32.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Forensic Review

Worst Realized Edges

Chet Holmgren

PlayerPra · Over

Chicago Bulls

Oklahoma City Thunder

Lost

Edge 13.640

Score 13.640

Line 25.500

Model 39.140

Actual 0.000

Prediction Miss Distance

39.140

Model: 39.140 Actual: 0.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Tyler Herro

PlayerPra · Over

Miami Heat

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lost

Edge 14.860

Score 14.860

Line 29.500

Model 44.360

Actual 19.000

Prediction Miss Distance

25.360

Model: 44.360 Actual: 19.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Alperen Sengun

PlayerPra · Over

Philadelphia 76ers

Houston Rockets

Lost

Edge 14.690

Score 14.690

Line 34.500

Model 49.190

Actual 24.000

Prediction Miss Distance

25.190

Model: 49.190 Actual: 24.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Bam Adebayo

PlayerPoints · Over

Miami Heat

Toronto Raptors

Lost

Edge 14.080

Score 14.080

Line 21.500

Model 35.580

Actual 7.000

Prediction Miss Distance

28.580

Model: 35.580 Actual: 7.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Luke Kennard

PlayerPra · Under

Los Angeles Lakers

Dallas Mavericks

Lost

Edge 12.810

Score 12.810

Line 19.500

Model 6.690

Actual 42.000

Prediction Miss Distance

35.310

Model: 6.690 Actual: 42.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Karl-Anthony Towns

PlayerPra · Over

New York Knicks

Charlotte Hornets

Lost

Edge 13.360

Score 13.360

Line 33.500

Model 46.860

Actual 18.000

Prediction Miss Distance

28.860

Model: 46.860 Actual: 18.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

0022501053

Total · Under

Chicago Bulls

Philadelphia 76ers

Lost

Edge 7.920

Score 7.920

Line 240.000

Model 232.080

Actual 294.000

Prediction Miss Distance

61.920

Model: 232.080 Actual: 294.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Paul George

PlayerPra · Over

Philadelphia 76ers

Houston Rockets

Lost

Edge 12.180

Score 12.180

Line 29.500

Model 41.680

Actual 12.000

Prediction Miss Distance

29.680

Model: 41.680 Actual: 12.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Kawhi Leonard

PlayerPra · Over

Oklahoma City Thunder

LA Clippers

Lost

Edge 13.790

Score 13.790

Line 35.500

Model 49.290

Actual 31.000

Prediction Miss Distance

18.290

Model: 49.290 Actual: 31.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

VJ Edgecombe

PlayerPra · Over

Minnesota Timberwolves

Philadelphia 76ers

Lost

Edge 12.620

Score 12.620

Line 25.500

Model 38.120

Actual 13.000

Prediction Miss Distance

25.120

Model: 38.120 Actual: 13.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Jalen Duren

PlayerPoints · Over

Detroit Pistons

Philadelphia 76ers

Lost

Edge 13.400

Score 13.400

Line 22.500

Model 35.900

Actual 16.000

Prediction Miss Distance

19.900

Model: 35.900 Actual: 16.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Donovan Clingan

PlayerPra · Over

Portland Trail Blazers

San Antonio Spurs

Lost

Edge 14.020

Score 14.020

Line 27.500

Model 41.520

Actual 27.000

Prediction Miss Distance

14.520

Model: 41.520 Actual: 27.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Cody Williams

PlayerPra · Over

Utah Jazz

Phoenix Suns

Lost

Edge 11.800

Score 11.800

Line 19.500

Model 31.300

Actual 4.000

Prediction Miss Distance

27.300

Model: 31.300 Actual: 4.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

0022500960

Total · Under

Chicago Bulls

Los Angeles Lakers

Lost

Edge 9.220

Score 9.220

Line 238.500

Model 229.280

Actual 272.000

Prediction Miss Distance

42.720

Model: 229.280 Actual: 272.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Jakob Poeltl

PlayerPra · Over

Toronto Raptors

Phoenix Suns

Lost

Edge 11.130

Score 11.130

Line 21.500

Model 32.630

Actual 2.000

Prediction Miss Distance

30.630

Model: 32.630 Actual: 2.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.

Dyson Daniels

PlayerPra · Over

Sacramento Kings

Atlanta Hawks

Lost

Edge 10.540

Score 10.540

Line 23.500

Model 34.040

Actual 0.000

Prediction Miss Distance

34.040

Model: 34.040 Actual: 0.000

Projection diverged materially from realized outcome.