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Optimization Intelligence

Game Diagnostics

Stress-test the fair game model against baseline across spread, total, and moneyline. This page shows where game environments break the projection layer, where fair is winning, where baseline is still stronger, and which specific games and teams are creating the most model pressure.

Projection Model 114
Games 60
Rows 60
Coverage 2026-04-03 → 2026-04-12
Spread Lift -7.79 Baseline MAE - Fair MAE
Total Lift 1.81 Baseline MAE - Fair MAE
ML Lift -0.001 Baseline Brier - Fair Brier
Filters
Diagnostics Window
Market
Fair Spread MAE
19.65
Game spread error
Fair Total MAE
14.46
Game total error
Fair ML Brier
0.17
Home win probability calibration
Spread Lift
-7.79
Baseline MAE - Fair MAE
Total Lift
1.81
Baseline MAE - Fair MAE
ML Lift
0.00
Baseline Brier - Fair Brier
Strongest Metric
Total
Best lift vs baseline: 1.807
Weakest Metric
Spread
Worst lift vs baseline: -7.792
Highest Stress Bucket
10+
Spread Bucket · most unstable game environment
Worst Team Context
Utah Jazz
Stress score: 54.15
Metric Matrix
Fair vs Baseline by Metric
Metric Fair Baseline Lift Relative Lift Status
Spread
Model comparison lane
 19.65 11.86 -7.79 -65.70% warning
Total
Model comparison lane
 14.46 16.26 1.81 11.11% success
Moneyline
Model comparison lane
 0.170 0.169 -0.001 -0.53% warning
Decision Brief
Research Guidance
Stress
P@item.Priority
Most fragile segment
Highest-impact game error segment is Spread Bucket: 10+.
Spread Stress
P@item.Priority
Highest spread pressure bucket
Spread pressure is highest in 10+ games (38.48 MAE).
Total Stress
P@item.Priority
Highest total pressure bucket
Total-model pressure is strongest in 240+ games (18.92 MAE).
Margin Stress
P@item.Priority
Hardest realized game shape
Actual margin behavior is hardest in 20+ results (33.78 spread MAE).
Spread
P@item.Priority
Fair vs baseline
Baseline is still outperforming fair spread by 7.79 MAE.
Total
P@item.Priority
Fair vs baseline
Fair total is beating baseline by 1.81 MAE.
Moneyline
P@item.Priority
Fair vs baseline
Baseline moneyline calibration remains stronger by 0.001 Brier.
Opportunity
P@item.Priority
Where fair wins
Fair model shows its strongest relative advantage in Spread Bucket: PK-3.
Weakness
P@item.Priority
Where baseline still wins
Baseline retains a stronger position in Spread Bucket: 10+.
Team Pressure
P@item.Priority
Most unstable team context
Team-level game-model instability is most visible around Utah Jazz.
Game Shape
Spread Buckets
PK-3
13.18
Rows 18
Lift -0.13
Stress 31.06
3-6
16.27
Rows 21
Lift -6.20
Stress 33.67
6-10
22.48
Rows 13
Lift -10.08
Stress 35.70
10+
38.48
Rows 8
Lift -25.48
Stress 52.29
Scoring Environment
Total Buckets
220-230
13.10
Rows 18
Lift 1.77
Stress 36.29
230-240
12.65
Rows 26
Lift 1.17
Stress 30.72
240+
18.92
Rows 16
Lift 2.89
Stress 43.53
Realized Outcome
Actual Margin Buckets
0-5
5.17
Rows 4
ML Lift 0.105
Stress 22.73
5-10
6.35
Rows 12
ML Lift -0.094
Stress 24.94
10-20
18.24
Rows 26
ML Lift 0.006
Stress 33.20
20+
33.78
Rows 18
ML Lift 0.028
Stress 49.73
Structural Pressure
Strongest Error Segments
Spread Bucket
10+
52.29
Rows 8
Spread Lift -25.48
Total Lift 3.48
Actual Margin Bucket
20+
49.73
Rows 18
Spread Lift -11.76
Total Lift 1.42
Total Bucket
240+
43.53
Rows 16
Spread Lift -10.11
Total Lift 2.89
Total Bucket
220-230
36.29
Rows 18
Spread Lift -6.63
Total Lift 1.77
Spread Bucket
6-10
35.70
Rows 13
Spread Lift -10.08
Total Lift 1.18
Spread Bucket
3-6
33.67
Rows 21
Spread Lift -6.20
Total Lift 1.20
Actual Margin Bucket
10-20
33.20
Rows 26
Spread Lift -8.92
Total Lift 2.07
Spread Bucket
PK-3
31.06
Rows 18
Spread Lift -0.13
Total Lift 2.22
Advantage Zones
Fair Beats Baseline
Spread Bucket
PK-3
0.70
Rows 18
ML Lift 0.000
Stress 31.06
Vulnerable Zones
Baseline Beats Fair
Spread Bucket
10+
-7.34
Rows 8
ML Lift -0.009
Stress 52.29
Actual Margin Bucket
20+
-3.44
Rows 18
ML Lift 0.028
Stress 49.73
Spread Bucket
6-10
-2.96
Rows 13
ML Lift 0.019
Stress 35.70
Total Bucket
240+
-2.39
Rows 16
ML Lift 0.038
Stress 43.53
Actual Margin Bucket
10-20
-2.28
Rows 26
ML Lift 0.006
Stress 33.20
Total Bucket
230-240
-2.01
Rows 26
ML Lift -0.013
Stress 30.72
Spread Bucket
3-6
-1.67
Rows 21
ML Lift -0.011
Stress 33.67
Total Bucket
220-230
-1.63
Rows 18
ML Lift -0.018
Stress 36.29
Forensic Review
Worst Games
Utah Jazz Utah Jazz
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder
2026-04-05
Spread Lift -28.39
Total Lift 6.33
ML Lift -0.040
Actual Margin 35.00
Actual Total 257.00
Game Stress Score
61.45
Spread Err: 45.88 Total Err: 15.12 ML Brier: 0.045
Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies
vs
Houston Rockets Houston Rockets
2026-04-12
Spread Lift -33.92
Total Lift -2.02
ML Lift -0.009
Actual Margin 31.00
Actual Total 233.00
Game Stress Score
53.16
Spread Err: 47.62 Total Err: 5.40 ML Brier: 0.014
Atlanta Hawks Atlanta Hawks
vs
Brooklyn Nets Brooklyn Nets
2026-04-03
Spread Lift -18.87
Total Lift 4.13
ML Lift -0.001
Actual Margin -34.00
Actual Total 248.00
Game Stress Score
65.67
Spread Err: 44.00 Total Err: 21.13 ML Brier: 0.054
Utah Jazz Utah Jazz
vs
New Orleans Pelicans New Orleans Pelicans
2026-04-07
Spread Lift -7.56
Total Lift 12.40
ML Lift -0.111
Actual Margin 19.00
Actual Total 293.00
Game Stress Score
66.58
Spread Err: 20.54 Total Err: 43.98 ML Brier: 0.206
Brooklyn Nets Brooklyn Nets
vs
Toronto Raptors Toronto Raptors
2026-04-12
Spread Lift -24.51
Total Lift 2.08
ML Lift 0.016
Actual Margin 35.00
Actual Total 237.00
Game Stress Score
60.79
Spread Err: 49.29 Total Err: 11.27 ML Brier: 0.023
Milwaukee Bucks Milwaukee Bucks
vs
Detroit Pistons Detroit Pistons
2026-04-08
Spread Lift -22.47
Total Lift 6.67
ML Lift -0.023
Actual Margin 26.00
Actual Total 248.00
Game Stress Score
55.28
Spread Err: 36.51 Total Err: 18.28 ML Brier: 0.049
Washington Wizards Washington Wizards
vs
Miami Heat Miami Heat
2026-04-04
Spread Lift -15.04
Total Lift 5.70
ML Lift 0.053
Actual Margin 16.00
Actual Total 288.00
Game Stress Score
63.29
Spread Err: 25.77 Total Err: 36.96 ML Brier: 0.056
Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies
vs
Denver Nuggets Denver Nuggets
2026-04-08
Spread Lift -32.61
Total Lift 4.85
ML Lift -0.006
Actual Margin 17.00
Actual Total 255.00
Game Stress Score
41.33
Spread Err: 33.63 Total Err: 7.56 ML Brier: 0.014
Cleveland Cavaliers Cleveland Cavaliers
vs
Memphis Grizzlies Memphis Grizzlies
2026-04-06
Spread Lift -18.81
Total Lift 5.83
ML Lift 0.000
Actual Margin -16.00
Actual Total 268.00
Game Stress Score
51.85
Spread Err: 26.01 Total Err: 25.31 ML Brier: 0.053
Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder
vs
Los Angeles Lakers Los Angeles Lakers
2026-04-07
Spread Lift -9.89
Total Lift 3.54
ML Lift -0.040
Actual Margin -36.00
Actual Total 210.00
Game Stress Score
60.66
Spread Err: 40.23 Total Err: 19.02 ML Brier: 0.141
Miami Heat Miami Heat
vs
Toronto Raptors Toronto Raptors
2026-04-07
Spread Lift -13.54
Total Lift -0.12
ML Lift -0.036
Actual Margin 26.00
Actual Total 216.00
Game Stress Score
59.48
Spread Err: 32.03 Total Err: 26.38 ML Brier: 0.107
LA Clippers LA Clippers
vs
Sacramento Kings Sacramento Kings
2026-04-05
Spread Lift -10.26
Total Lift -0.54
ML Lift 0.036
Actual Margin -29.00
Actual Total 247.00
Game Stress Score
53.60
Spread Err: 35.31 Total Err: 17.27 ML Brier: 0.102
Chicago Bulls Chicago Bulls
vs
Dallas Mavericks Dallas Mavericks
2026-04-12
Spread Lift -2.66
Total Lift 1.46
ML Lift -0.107
Actual Margin 21.00
Actual Total 277.00
Game Stress Score
57.09
Spread Err: 20.53 Total Err: 33.92 ML Brier: 0.264
Indiana Pacers Indiana Pacers
vs
Brooklyn Nets Brooklyn Nets
2026-04-09
Spread Lift -7.45
Total Lift 1.83
ML Lift 0.137
Actual Margin -29.00
Actual Total 217.00
Game Stress Score
50.05
Spread Err: 35.84 Total Err: 13.28 ML Brier: 0.093
Chicago Bulls Chicago Bulls
vs
Washington Wizards Washington Wizards
2026-04-07
Spread Lift -1.72
Total Lift 0.86
ML Lift 0.201
Actual Margin -31.00
Actual Total 227.00
Game Stress Score
56.08
Spread Err: 35.27 Total Err: 19.41 ML Brier: 0.140
Detroit Pistons Detroit Pistons
vs
Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia 76ers
2026-04-04
Spread Lift -6.31
Total Lift 0.66
ML Lift 0.096
Actual Margin -23.00
Actual Total 209.00
Game Stress Score
51.96
Spread Err: 28.26 Total Err: 22.49 ML Brier: 0.121
Phoenix Suns Phoenix Suns
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder
2026-04-12
Spread Lift 11.85
Total Lift 0.65
ML Lift 0.324
Actual Margin -32.00
Actual Total 238.00
Game Stress Score
41.35
Spread Err: 30.10 Total Err: 8.15 ML Brier: 0.310
Atlanta Hawks Atlanta Hawks
vs
Miami Heat Miami Heat
2026-04-12
Spread Lift 8.44
Total Lift 2.32
ML Lift 0.210
Actual Margin 26.00
Actual Total 260.00
Game Stress Score
43.78
Spread Err: 24.38 Total Err: 16.39 ML Brier: 0.301
Team Pressure
Worst Teams
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
3 games
54.15
Spread Lift -17.66
Total Lift 7.30
ML Lift -0.072
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4 games
49.10
Spread Lift -8.37
Total Lift 3.16
ML Lift 0.061
Miami Heat
Miami Heat
4 games
47.00
Spread Lift -8.76
Total Lift 2.37
ML Lift 0.043
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets
5 games
46.77
Spread Lift -10.57
Total Lift 1.72
ML Lift -0.017
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies
4 games
44.44
Spread Lift -23.53
Total Lift 3.69
ML Lift 0.015
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
4 games
43.77
Spread Lift -5.28
Total Lift 0.92
ML Lift 0.054
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
3 games
43.46
Spread Lift -6.33
Total Lift 5.98
ML Lift 0.054
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors
4 games
42.51
Spread Lift -13.69
Total Lift 0.97
ML Lift -0.063
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
4 games
41.17
Spread Lift -6.78
Total Lift 1.29
ML Lift 0.046
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks
4 games
40.05
Spread Lift -11.51
Total Lift 3.29
ML Lift -0.058
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4 games
38.91
Spread Lift -4.93
Total Lift 1.97
ML Lift -0.014
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
4 games
38.48
Spread Lift -4.68
Total Lift -0.12
ML Lift -0.066