Optimization Intelligence

Player Diagnostics

Player projection accuracy, role-context instability, directional bias, and the exact team and player environments where the model is breaking down. This page is the player-level stress terminal for minutes, production, and context-sensitive projection risk.

Projection Model 114

Players 532

Rows 2,129

Coverage 2026-04-03 → 2026-04-12

Minutes Bias 0.71 Positive means overprojection

Points MAE 4.78 Player scoring error

PRA MAE 6.87 Primary production pressure

Filters

Diagnostics Window

Minutes MAE

7.23

Overall player minutes error

Minutes Bias

0.71

Positive means overprojection

Points MAE

4.78

Overall player points error

PRA MAE

6.87

Overall player PRA error

Rebounds MAE

1.77

Overall player rebounds error

Assists / 3PM

1.21

AST 1.21 · 3PM 0.90

Weakest Stat Lane

MIN

Current MAE pressure: 7.23

Highest Stress Segment

Healthy Context

Injury · highest player instability

Worst Team Context

New Orleans Pelicans

Stress score: 34.64

Worst Player Context

Saddiq Bey

Stress score: 66.80

Stat Matrix

Player Accuracy by Stat

Stat	MAE	Bias	Relative Error	Stress	Tone
MIN Projection lane	7.23	0.71	7.23	7.94	warning
PTS Projection lane	4.78	0.87	4.78	5.66	warning
PRA Projection lane	6.87	0.95	6.87	7.82	warning
REB Projection lane	1.77	0.05	1.77	1.83	success
AST Projection lane	1.21	0.02	1.21	1.23	success
3PM Projection lane	0.90	0.44	0.90	1.34	success

Decision Brief

Research Guidance

Stat Lane

P@item.Priority

Weakest stat lane

MIN is currently the weakest player projection lane (7.23 MAE).

Segment

P@item.Priority

Highest stress segment

Current highest-pressure segment is Injury: Healthy Context.

Minutes

P@item.Priority

Weakest minutes bucket

30+ players are the least stable minutes segment (9.71 MAE).

Tier

P@item.Priority

Highest tier pressure

Projection pressure is strongest in Rotation players (10.56 minutes MAE).

Injury

P@item.Priority

Injury-context fragility

Healthy Context contexts are creating the most player volatility (12.82 minutes MAE).

Availability

P@item.Priority

Availability pressure zone

Availability pressure is strongest in 0.50-0.75 contexts.

Starter Confidence

P@item.Priority

Starter ambiguity risk

Starter-confidence pressure is strongest in 0.25-0.50 contexts.

Rotation

P@item.Priority

Rotation instability

Rotation instability is concentrated in 0.50-0.75 contexts.

Minutes Cap Risk

P@item.Priority

Minutes cap pressure

Minutes cap risk is most damaging in Moderate contexts.

Bias

P@item.Priority

Overprojection cluster

Overprojection is most concentrated in Minutes Bucket: 0-10.

Bias

P@item.Priority

Underprojection cluster

Underprojection is most concentrated in Minutes Bucket: 30+.

Team Pressure

P@item.Priority

Most unstable team context

Player projection instability is highest on New Orleans Pelicans.

Workload

Minutes Buckets

0-10

6.34

Rows 1,097

Bias 5.68

Composite 2.95

10-20

6.92

Rows 256

Bias 0.22

Composite 3.69

20-30

7.79

Rows 449

Bias -4.29

Composite 4.47

30+

9.71

Rows 327

Bias -8.70

Composite 5.77

Role

Projection Tier

Core

8.83

Rows 515

PRA MAE 9.77

Stress 26.05

Rotation

10.56

Rows 558

PRA MAE 10.08

Stress 28.08

Bench

8.86

Rows 355

PRA MAE 7.18

Stress 21.13

Fringe

2.58

Rows 701

PRA MAE 2.03

Stress 7.05

Health

Injury Context

6.62

Rows 1,919

PRA MAE 6.41

Stress 18.12

Healthy Context

12.82

Rows 210

PRA MAE 11.08

Stress 32.13

Confidence

Availability

0.00-0.25

0.30

Rows 355

Bias -0.30

Stress 2.83

0.50-0.75

12.51

Rows 306

Bias -4.03

Stress 31.46

0.75-1.00

7.81

Rows 1,468

Bias 1.95

Stress 21.05

Lineup Signal

Starter Confidence

0.00-0.25

5.51

Rows 1,314

PRA MAE 4.70

Stress 14.15

0.25-0.50

11.77

Rows 280

PRA MAE 11.01

Stress 30.68

0.50-0.75

11.11

Rows 161

PRA MAE 11.13

Stress 30.56

0.75-1.00

8.22

Rows 374

PRA MAE 9.56

Stress 25.20

Rotation

Rotation Stability

0.00-0.25

3.82

Rows 233

Bias -2.72

Stress 10.34

0.25-0.50

6.66

Rows 291

Bias -3.54

Stress 15.23

0.50-0.75

7.87

Rows 551

Bias -0.17

Stress 20.02

0.75-1.00

7.81

Rows 1,054

Bias 3.11

Stress 22.44

Cap Risk

Minutes Cap Risk

Low

7.81

Rows 1,468

Composite 4.22

Stress 21.05

Moderate

13.13

Rows 6

Composite 6.44

Stress 35.20

High

12.50

Rows 300

Composite 5.95

Stress 31.38

Extreme

0.30

Rows 355

Composite 0.17

Stress 2.83

Structural Pressure

Strongest Error Segments

Injury

Healthy Context

32.13

Rows 210

MIN MAE 12.82

PRA MAE 11.08

Availability

0.50-0.75

31.46

Rows 306

MIN MAE 12.51

PRA MAE 10.82

Minutes Cap Risk

High

31.38

Rows 300

MIN MAE 12.50

PRA MAE 10.80

Starter Confidence

0.25-0.50

30.68

Rows 280

MIN MAE 11.77

PRA MAE 11.01

Starter Confidence

0.50-0.75

30.56

Rows 161

MIN MAE 11.11

PRA MAE 11.13

Minutes Bucket

30+

28.28

Rows 327

MIN MAE 9.71

PRA MAE 10.62

Projection Tier

Rotation

28.08

Rows 558

MIN MAE 10.56

PRA MAE 10.08

Role

Starter

27.58

Rows 591

MIN MAE 9.45

PRA MAE 10.28

Bias Cluster

Most Overprojected

Minutes Bucket

0-10

5.68

Rows 1,097

Bias Strength 5.68

Stress 16.09

Starter Confidence

0.50-0.75

4.69

Rows 161

Bias Strength 4.69

Stress 30.56

Projection Tier

Core

3.70

Rows 515

Bias Strength 3.70

Stress 26.05

Role

Starter

3.46

Rows 591

Bias Strength 3.46

Stress 27.58

Projection Tier

Rotation

3.36

Rows 558

Bias Strength 3.36

Stress 28.08

Starter Confidence

0.75-1.00

3.31

Rows 374

Bias Strength 3.31

Stress 25.20

Rotation Stability

0.75-1.00

3.11

Rows 1,054

Bias Strength 3.11

Stress 22.44

Availability

0.75-1.00

1.95

Rows 1,468

Bias Strength 1.95

Stress 21.05

Bias Cluster

Most Underprojected

Minutes Bucket

30+

-8.70

Rows 327

Bias Strength 8.70

Stress 28.28

Injury

Healthy Context

-7.42

Rows 210

Bias Strength 7.42

Stress 32.13

Minutes Bucket

20-30

-4.29

Rows 449

Bias Strength 4.29

Stress 22.13

Availability

0.50-0.75

-4.03

Rows 306

Bias Strength 4.03

Stress 31.46

Minutes Cap Risk

High

-4.02

Rows 300

Bias Strength 4.02

Stress 31.38

Rotation Stability

0.25-0.50

-3.54

Rows 291

Bias Strength 3.54

Stress 15.23

Rotation Stability

0.00-0.25

-2.72

Rows 233

Bias Strength 2.72

Stress 10.34

Projection Tier

Bench

-2.59

Rows 355

Bias Strength 2.59

Stress 21.13

Forensic Review

Worst Players

Saddiq Bey

New Orleans Pelicans · Mostly Starter

3 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 24.88

MIN Bias 19.11

PTS MAE 18.59

PRA MAE 23.14

Avail. 1.00

Starter Conf. 0.89

Player Stress Score

66.80

Rotation: 0.90 Cap Risk: 0.10

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Memphis Grizzlies · Mostly Starter

4 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 22.79

MIN Bias 22.79

PTS MAE 15.15

PRA MAE 18.90

Avail. 1.00

Starter Conf. 0.80

Player Stress Score

57.04

Rotation: 0.81 Cap Risk: 0.10

Micah Peavy

New Orleans Pelicans · Mostly Bench

3 games Tier 2

MIN MAE 24.89

MIN Bias -24.89

PTS MAE 12.59

PRA MAE 16.78

Avail. 0.83

Starter Conf. 0.30

Player Stress Score

54.73

Rotation: 0.16 Cap Risk: 0.23

Joel Embiid

Philadelphia 76ers · Mostly Bench

5 games Tier 4

MIN MAE 17.78

MIN Bias -5.98

PTS MAE 13.68

PRA MAE 21.43

Avail. 0.33

Starter Conf. 0.16

Player Stress Score

54.30

Rotation: 0.88 Cap Risk: 0.71

Rayan Rupert

Memphis Grizzlies · Mostly Starter

4 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 18.88

MIN Bias 13.39

PTS MAE 12.99

PRA MAE 21.89

Avail. 1.00

Starter Conf. 0.69

Player Stress Score

53.96

Rotation: 0.83 Cap Risk: 0.10

Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · Mostly Starter

3 games Tier 2

MIN MAE 13.99

MIN Bias -13.99

PTS MAE 16.15

PRA MAE 21.74

Avail. 0.83

Starter Conf. 0.55

Player Stress Score

52.35

Rotation: 0.76 Cap Risk: 0.23

DeMar DeRozan

Sacramento Kings · Mostly Starter

3 games Tier 2

MIN MAE 18.26

MIN Bias 18.26

PTS MAE 13.23

PRA MAE 19.36

Avail. 0.83

Starter Conf. 0.55

Player Stress Score

51.31

Rotation: 0.71 Cap Risk: 0.23

Luka Garza

Boston Celtics · Mostly Bench

4 games Tier 3

MIN MAE 18.79

MIN Bias 0.52

PTS MAE 12.70

PRA MAE 18.65

Avail. 0.88

Starter Conf. 0.20

Player Stress Score

50.55

Rotation: 0.67 Cap Risk: 0.20

James Harden

Cleveland Cavaliers · Mostly Starter

4 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 18.61

MIN Bias 17.25

PTS MAE 11.75

PRA MAE 19.80

Avail. 1.00

Starter Conf. 0.99

Player Stress Score

50.35

Rotation: 0.88 Cap Risk: 0.10

Cedric Coward

Memphis Grizzlies · Mostly Starter

4 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 22.31

MIN Bias 22.31

PTS MAE 11.65

PRA MAE 16.01

Avail. 1.00

Starter Conf. 0.90

Player Stress Score

50.27

Rotation: 0.88 Cap Risk: 0.15

Jalen Green

Phoenix Suns · Mostly Starter

4 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 16.75

MIN Bias 10.75

PTS MAE 13.96

PRA MAE 19.16

Avail. 1.00

Starter Conf. 0.96

Player Stress Score

50.07

Rotation: 0.82 Cap Risk: 0.10

LeBron James

Los Angeles Lakers · Mostly Starter

4 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 18.23

MIN Bias 18.23

PTS MAE 10.46

PRA MAE 19.33

Avail. 1.00

Starter Conf. 0.93

Player Stress Score

48.32

Rotation: 0.90 Cap Risk: 0.15

Kawhi Leonard

LA Clippers · Mostly Starter

4 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 11.87

MIN Bias 11.87

PTS MAE 16.45

PRA MAE 18.87

Avail. 1.00

Starter Conf. 0.94

Player Stress Score

47.40

Rotation: 0.86 Cap Risk: 0.10

Derik Queen

New Orleans Pelicans · Mostly Starter

3 games Tier 2

MIN MAE 12.25

MIN Bias -12.25

PTS MAE 11.46

PRA MAE 22.17

Avail. 0.83

Starter Conf. 0.33

Player Stress Score

46.35

Rotation: 0.80 Cap Risk: 0.23

Donovan Mitchell

Cleveland Cavaliers · Mostly Starter

4 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 14.91

MIN Bias 12.24

PTS MAE 13.34

PRA MAE 17.50

Avail. 0.88

Starter Conf. 0.81

Player Stress Score

46.15

Rotation: 0.89 Cap Risk: 0.20

Jalen Johnson

Atlanta Hawks · Mostly Starter

4 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 13.57

MIN Bias 10.62

PTS MAE 13.39

PRA MAE 18.93

Avail. 1.00

Starter Conf. 0.94

Player Stress Score

46.09

Rotation: 0.92 Cap Risk: 0.10

Victor Wembanyama

San Antonio Spurs · Mostly Starter

4 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 13.24

MIN Bias 7.62

PTS MAE 11.44

PRA MAE 20.52

Avail. 0.75

Starter Conf. 0.58

Player Stress Score

45.90

Rotation: 0.85 Cap Risk: 0.35

Brice Sensabaugh

Utah Jazz · Mostly Starter

3 games Tier 1

MIN MAE 15.59

MIN Bias 5.81

PTS MAE 13.40

PRA MAE 16.30

Avail. 1.00

Starter Conf. 0.79

Player Stress Score

45.50

Rotation: 0.82 Cap Risk: 0.10

Team Pressure

Worst Teams

New Orleans Pelicans

54 rows

34.64

MIN MAE 13.83

PTS MAE 8.03

PRA MAE 12.17

Composite 6.56

Cleveland Cavaliers

72 rows

26.34

MIN MAE 10.22

PTS MAE 6.06

PRA MAE 9.60

Composite 5.14

Dallas Mavericks

72 rows

26.11

MIN MAE 10.00

PTS MAE 6.31

PRA MAE 9.23

Composite 5.05

Phoenix Suns

72 rows

24.97

MIN MAE 9.71

PTS MAE 6.04

PRA MAE 8.80

Composite 4.87

Boston Celtics

60 rows

24.78

MIN MAE 9.58

PTS MAE 6.01

PRA MAE 8.87

Composite 4.90

New York Knicks

54 rows

22.85

MIN MAE 8.92

PTS MAE 5.46

PRA MAE 8.09

Composite 4.45

Oklahoma City Thunder

72 rows

22.71

MIN MAE 8.15

PTS MAE 5.84

PRA MAE 8.29

Composite 4.48

Utah Jazz

54 rows

22.46

MIN MAE 7.74

PTS MAE 5.46

PRA MAE 8.35

Composite 4.30

Minnesota Timberwolves

90 rows

22.17

MIN MAE 8.83

PTS MAE 5.26

PRA MAE 7.60

Composite 4.31

Denver Nuggets

72 rows

21.90

MIN MAE 8.43

PTS MAE 5.20

PRA MAE 7.74

Composite 4.31

Atlanta Hawks

72 rows

21.74

MIN MAE 7.91

PTS MAE 5.58

PRA MAE 7.81

Composite 4.25

Chicago Bulls

72 rows

21.07

MIN MAE 8.39

PTS MAE 4.80

PRA MAE 6.97

Composite 4.08